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How schedules will impact playoff contenders
Baseball's stretch drive is upon us, and when you've got so many hotly fought races going on, strength of schedule takes on an acute importance.
In MLB, you don't see as much variance among the schedules as you do in the NFL, but there's still enough to make a difference -- sometimes a pennant-deciding difference. So to get an idea of which teams have the easier or harder road going forward, let's have a look at each contender's remaining schedule. (We're defining contenders as those teams within five games of playoff position ... ) AngelsRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.476
The Angels are going to win the AL West by a wide margin, and considering how much easier their schedule is relative to every other AL contender, they'll almost certainly wind up with home-field advantage throughout the postseason. BrewersRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.496
The Brewers almost certainly won't catch the Cubs for the division title, so their goal is fending off the Cardinals in the Wild Card chase. On that front, the schedule gives them an edge. CardinalsRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: .512
The Cards play more games at home the rest of the way, but on the other hand, they have a higher winning percentage on the road this season. They're working from behind in the Wild Card, and Milwaukee has an easier go of it. CubsRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: .508
The Cubs are going to make consecutive trips to the postseason for the first time since -- wait for it -- 1908, and they'll almost certainly go in as division champs. The Brewers have a slightly more accommodating road ahead, but the Cubs' lead in the Central is too large. That series in mid-September presents Chicago with an opportunity to cinch it. DiamondbacksRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.472
The Snakes will play the Dodgers six more times this season, with the final three-game set going down in L.A. Overall, give 'Zona the edge in schedule. The Dodgers play inferior opponents, but the home-road splits favor Arizona by a mile. DodgersRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.444
As you can see, the Dodgers play almost two-thirds of their remaining games on the road, and this season they're just 26-32 away from Chavez Ravine. The mitigating factor, however, is that the rest of the way no contender plays an easier slate of teams than the Dodgers do. In rough terms, it's like playing the Reds every day from this point forward. Still, that's a lot of road games ... MarlinsRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.480
The Marlins' schedule isn't demonstrably easier than the Mets' or Phillies', and that's why, considering their place in the standings, the odds of a playoff berth are long. MetsRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.488
They've got a remaining schedule that's similar to Philly's, albeit slightly easier. Throw in their slim lead in the East, and you've got the makings of a critical-mass series between those two teams. It may come down to that three-game set in Shea. PhilliesRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.496
Starting Friday, the Phillies will play 20 of 23 games against teams on this list. That stretch will determine the Phillies' fate. RaysRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.532
September will certainly test the mettle of the upstart Rays: starting on the 2nd of the month, they play 19 straight games against the Yankees, Red Sox, vastly underrated Blue Jays, and Twins, and they'll have only one off day during that stretch. To date, they've played the toughest schedule in all of baseball, and it's only going to get more difficult in the coming weeks. The good news is that the division lead is secure for the time being. Truly, the Rays have earned their standing as one of the game's best teams. Red SoxRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: 0.532
Over at Baseball Prospectus, they give the Red Sox just a 27.3 percent chance of winning the AL East, but they give them a 63.2 percent chance of taking the Wild Card. That's why, from Boston's perspective, their most important games don't come against the division-leading Rays. The more realistic goal is taking the Wild Card. They don't play the Twins again this season, but they do tangle with the White Sox at the end of the month. The good news is that the Sox play most of their remaining games at home; the bad news is that their opponents are generally quite tough. TwinsRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: .500
Thanks to the Republican National Convention's arrival in Minneapolis, the Twins are about to play 14 straight on the road. In 2008, they're just 26-31 away from home, so it's obviously a crucial stretch. Worse for the Twins' hopes is that, from this point forward, they play twice as many games on the road. White SoxRemaining Opponents' Avg. Win%: .524
The schedule isn't easy for the South Siders, but considering how many road games Minnesota has in the coming weeks, it's still an edge for the Sox. The goal is to build upon their narrow division lead and make that late September series against the Twins a little less meaningful. |
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