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Down to three with five to go
You know folks, when Jimmie Johnson took over the point lead after Talladega, he basically took control of the championship. When you give a team the caliber of the No. 48 a bunch of cushion to work with that gives them options that the others don't have. Jimmie knows that better than anyone else. He has the option to drive hard and take chances or he has the option of preserving that point lead in case he needs it somewhere down the road.
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So far he hasn't had to do anything drastic. He's been able to win if the car was capable of that and bring home top 10s when it was capable of that. That's just the luxury you have when you get a comfortable lead. He has a 69 point lead and, while it doesn't seem like a comfortable lead, it really is when he has a car that runs so well like he has.
Jimmie has always seemed to have a fast car. If you combine that with a championship driver and a fast pit crew, plus a 69 point cushion, well folks, that's a pretty unbeatable combination. Then look to where they are going this weekend, Martinsville. Jimmie has won something like three out of the last four races there.
Saturday night Jimmie's car was junk. He didn't break my Golden Rule of beating himself. He took care of the car and came home in sixth place. Sure he was frustrated after it was over but he got the best out of the evening that he could. That's just smart racing.
I will be the first to tell you that Jeff Burton surprised me. Jeff is probably the most consistent and conservative race car driver in our sport today. He never qualifies very well and that should have been a tip right there when he qualified fourth. His Achilles' heel in my opinion has always been his poor qualifying. He has had to start way back in a number of races this year. He has been fortunate to work his way to the front but this weekend, qualifying up front is key.
The pit road at Martinsville is pretty treacherous. I did notice in the modified race the other day there that it has been worked on so I am curious to see what effect it has this weekend. It looks to be bigger and all concrete now so that could ease some driver's minds. Regardless, the key to Martinsville has always been to qualify up front. That allows you to get those end pits down towards Turn 2 and that will always pick you up a lot of spots every time you make a pit stop.
Burton is going to have to qualify up front this weekend and stay up there to take on Jimmie. This new car likes being out front. What it doesn't like is being back there in dirty air. Martinsville is not aero-sensitive, it is just bumper- and fender-sensitive. Trust me, there will be a lot of bumping and grinding this weekend.
The good thing is this new car, well, she's a tank. She will take a licking and keep on ticking. Did you see how Jeff Gordon bounced off the wall early in the race Saturday night? If that had been the old car, Jeff would have been in the garage replacing parts. But all he had to do Saturday night was come in, slap a couple Goodyears on it and then there he was leading the race later in the evening.
It just shows how tough this new car is and that's an advantage going into a place like Martinsville. You have to take care of the brakes there. I really think that will be Greg Biffle's Achilles' heel. It seems like the last few times at Martinsville, Greg has battled brake issues. Greg needs to run well there this weekend. He has to get his car handling right so that he doesn't have to use up his brakes. You hear the Roush Fenway cars talking about brakes almost every week. You can't go into Martinsville with your weak link being your brake system so Greg needs to be aware of that this weekend.
Going back to the No. 48 bunch, once they get through Martinsville, which is the sixth race in the Chase, then it's smooth sailing. The remaining races are places that Jimmie has either won at or run well at. The last race, Homestead, is a crapshoot depending on what kind of lead you have going into it.
I still believe it's a three-man race though. Some of these other cats in the Chase are already two races behind in points. So it really looks to be Jimmie, Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle. They have a pretty good cushion over everybody else. When you get a chance, here is something fun to do. Go back and check your history. Year in and year out it always seems to start out the Chase obviously with 12 drivers. Then we get down to six. Then you get down to three drivers and it wouldn't surprise me if after Martinsville we are down to only two drivers fighting for the championship. No matter what point system they use, it always seems to line up that same way.
| Ask DW |
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The racing has been pretty darn good. I still believe this new car needs some work for the 1.5-mile tracks. I still would like to see NASCAR let them tweak on it a bit and hopefully that is in the works for 2009. They need to get rid of some more of the aero dependency that this new car was supposed to fix but didn't.
I have been curious to see how Dodge is coming with their new engine. I believe Kurt Busch has been running the new engine and after Saturday night the Dodge boys have to be encouraged. It wasn't that long ago that Ryan Newman, with his Penske team and Dodge power plant were the talk of the garage. He used to get down the straightaway like a rocket but they have seemed to have lost that edge. This new engine might be just what the doctor ordered to give the Dodge boys more steam under the hood.
I have been reading the speculation about the possibility of smaller starting fields in 2009. Let me tell you, I have always said they have been too large at some race tracks. If you can start 43 cars at Daytona, Talladega, Indianapolis, California, etc, what makes you think that's the right amount of cars for places like Bristol, Martinsville and Richmond? I have always said at those short tracks, you needed to get 8-10 cars wrecked and off the track before you could let things settle down and have a good race. Too many cars out on the track, especially with the Lucky Dog giving cars back their laps, doesn't make for nearly as good of racing.
A smaller field, in my mind, would help the racing on certain race tracks, not necessarily everywhere. I think 36 is a great number and if I was NASCAR I would consider it, again, at some racetracks. I might even increase the fields at some of the bigger tracks like Daytona, Talladega and Indianapolis. Smaller track equals smaller fields in my mind.

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